China's main pollutant discharge has entered a turning period

        China's main pollutant discharge has entered a turning period

        Predicted peak value during the 13th Five Year Plan Period

        ● the year 2020 is the turning point for China's pollutant emission to cross the peak and enter the decline channel

        ● the inflection point of China's major pollutant emissions will come in the next 5-10 years

        ● air pollutants can be reduced by more than 60% from the current total level to achieve the improvement of ambient air quality, which may last for 20 years

        With the strong promotion of pollution reduction policies and the deep adjustment of economic structure since the 11th five year plan, the emission of major pollutants in China has shown a new trend. It is necessary to reevaluate the current situation of pollutant emission control in order to make pollution reduction and environmental governance more targeted.

        According to the environmental effects of pollutants, relevant international experience and the availability of data, the research group of "analysis of the situation of environmental pollution in China and Research on Countermeasures for its treatment" of the Development Research Institute of resources and environmental policy of the State Council preliminarily determined the research scope of major air and water pollutants in China, mainly including sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx), inhalable particles (PM10, PM2) 5) Six kinds of air pollutants, such as VOCs, NH3 and heavy metals, and eight kinds of water pollutants, such as chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia nitrogen, cyanide, petroleum, volatile phenol, heavy metal, total nitrogen and total phosphorus. The research group has constructed an analysis framework to study the emission trend of major pollutants in China, including: the prospect of economic growth and the trend of "decoupling" between economic growth and pollutant emission; the international experience of Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and pollutant emission reduction; the development trend of high energy consumption and high pollution industries; the total energy consumption and the trend of energy structure change; The effectiveness of environmental supervision and the trend of pollutant emission reduction policy; the change of environmental statistical caliber and uncertainty factors. In this framework, the research group uses new statistical data and relevant new research results to analyze the trend of major air and water pollutants emissions, and obtains the following judgment.

        Air pollution in China is still serious.

        atmospheric pollutant

        The total emission of conventional air pollutants has reached the peak value. It is predicted that the peak value of some unconventional air pollutants will appear in the next 5-10 years, and the peak value of the total superposition of main air pollutants is likely to appear in 2016-2020. From the data and related analysis, the total amount of PM10 emissions has been in a downward trend since the 1990s; SO2 emissions appeared a "turning point" in 2006, and then entered a stable decline channel; NOx emissions have declined since the statistical data in 2012, and it is predicted that NOx emissions have entered a "platform period" and showed a downward trend. Therefore, it can be preliminarily judged that the "conventional" air pollutant emission has turned. At the same time, the research group integrated relevant research results and calculated, predicted that the total emissions of volatile organic compounds, ammonia and heavy metals in the atmosphere will reach the peak in the next 5-10 years or so. Sum up these six major air pollutants and analyze their emission trends. It is estimated that between 2016 and 2020, it is likely that the total emission of these six pollutants will be higher.

        Water pollutants

        Most of the water pollutant emissions have reached the peak value, and a small part of the water pollutant emission peak is predicted to be around 2020. After comprehensive analysis and treatment, the peak value of the predicted total amount of main water pollutants is likely to appear in 2016-2020. According to the statistical data, the discharge of COD, ammonia nitrogen, heavy metals, cyanide, petroleum and volatile phenol pollutants in the wastewater has continued to decline, while the total phosphorus and nitrogen emissions are on the rise or at a high level. After the adjustment of statistical caliber in 2011, pollutants such as cod, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus and total nitrogen from agricultural sources were added to the statistical scope. Due to its short time series, it brings certain uncertainty to the trend analysis. Considering that from now on to 2020, the use of chemical fertilizer and livestock and poultry breeding in China are growing, and the production of COD, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus and total nitrogen from agricultural sources may still be on the rise or remain at a high level, and the emission of COD, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus and total nitrogen from agricultural sources will be "backward" for 5 to 10 years due to the difficulty in controlling agricultural source pollutants. Considering the discharge amount of various water pollutants and their emission reduction speed, it is predicted that the total amount of water pollutants (superposed) can reach a peak between 2016 and 2020, and then enter the "platform period", and then slowly decline.

        Overall judgment of pollutant discharge

        In general, the current to 2020 is the turning period for China's pollutant emissions to cross the peak and enter the decline channel. In the next 5 to 10 years, the turning point for China's main pollutant emissions will come. Between 2016 and 2020 (i.e. the 13th Five Year Plan period), China's main pollutant emissions (the total amount of superposition) will reach the peak. This stage is also a "platform" where various pollutant emissions overlap at a higher point Period ". When most of the pollutants reach the peak value, they will enter a stable channel. Therefore, it will be a past style to discuss whether China should avoid the road of "pollution first and then treatment".

        Through international comparison, it can be found that in the middle and later stages of rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, and in the period of relatively low per capita income, China has achieved the transition of major pollutant emissions, and the work of pollution control and emission reduction is "ahead of schedule". However, it should also be noted that the inflection points of major pollutant emissions are coming one after another, and the total amount of pollutant emissions is at a historical high level, which is a compound pollution